Heart Attack & Stroke Risk Calculator (SCORE2)

How the calculation works#

SCORE2 takes five factors — age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol — and, using a model trained on more than 600,000 people, estimates the 10-year risk of a heart attack or stroke. The result is calibrated to your region: the same lab values give a different risk depending on the country's cardiovascular mortality.

Sex

MaleFemale

Age, years

Smoking

Non-smokerCurrent smoker

Systolic blood pressure: 130 mmHg

Total cholesterol, mmol/L

HDL cholesterol, mmol/L

Risk regionLowModerateHighVery high

Enter in mg/dL

The ESC classification by national CVD mortality. Pick the region that matches your country; most of Western Europe is low or moderate.

10-year risk of heart attack or stroke

5.0%High risk

Active risk-factor reduction is warranted; discuss target cholesterol and blood-pressure levels — and sometimes medication — with a doctor.

This is a screening estimate, not a diagnosis. The model does not apply to people with established cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease or familial hypercholesterolaemia — their risk is assessed differently and is already high. Treatment decisions rest with a doctor.

How to read the result#

The category matters more than the raw percentage. The thresholds are tied to age: at 45 a 5% risk is already the high category, while at 65 it is still moderate, because absolute risk naturally rises with age and the same percentage in a younger person implies a faster climb.

Age	Low to moderate	High	Very high
40–49	< 2.5%	2.5–7.5%	> 7.5%
50–69	< 5%	5–10%	> 10%

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What actually lowers the risk#

Three of the five factors are modifiable: smoking, blood pressure and cholesterol. Quitting smoking cuts cardiovascular risk faster than any drug — within a year it roughly halves. Controlling blood pressure and lowering LDL work together: the higher the baseline risk, the greater the absolute benefit of correcting them.

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When a result is a reason to see a doctor, not to panic#

A high estimated risk is not a verdict but a reason to discuss target cholesterol and blood-pressure levels — and possibly medication — with a doctor. A low risk is not a reason to forget lifestyle either: SCORE2 estimates the next 10 years, not a lifetime, and in a younger person even a low 10-year risk can mean a high lifetime one.

Читайте также: Stroke: the early warning signs and what actually prevents it

Limits of the model#

SCORE2 does not apply to people with established cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease or familial hypercholesterolaemia: in all of these the person already sits at high or very high risk, and a general chart only misleads. For ages 70 and over, the separately calibrated SCORE2-OP model is used.